Shortly after the sudden and
unexpected death of Lindsey Graham, South Carolina’s senior (and hawkish) U.S. senator,
on 11 July 2026, the Congress passed, and U.S. President Trump signed, the
Graham Act, which is legislation that gives the federal president discretion in
adding economic sanctions and higher tariffs to weaken Russia’s military
machine by hurting Russia’s economy—especially its lucrative oil industry—because
Russia was still invading Ukraine. By Columbus Day, however, President Trump
and Russia’s President Putin had made a deal wherein Russia would sell 300,000
tons of diesel to the U.S. and global markets immediately, with an additional
500,000 tons in November and then one million more. President Trump, using his
discretion as allowed in the Graham Act, “issued a broad sanctions waiver for
Russian diesel until April 2027.”[1]
Euronews reported at the time that this move was “raising concerns in Ukraine
and among its allies,” most notably the E.U. and in its state capitals.[2]
The fact that the deal undercut the Western strategy of pressuring Russia
economically so it would withdrawal its military from Ukrainian territory means
that the diesel sale and broader waiver did more than raise concerns in
Europe. Zelensky was probably hitting his head against a wall in utter
disbelief at one point. For his part, Putin, formerly head of the KGB in the
U.S.S.R., may have been relieved, and dumbstruck, that the Americans could be
such suckers. As is often the case in foreign policy, domestic politics play a
role in the motivation of key actors on the world stage. President Trump was
facing an upcoming Congressional election in early November and whether Trump’s
Republican group would continue to control the U.S. House and U.S. Senate was
preoccupying the president in October because if even just one of the two
federal legislative chambers would be under the control of the Democratic
group, Trump’s legislative will would be compromised at best in getting through
Congress. Trump’s political calculus had a lot to do with his knowledge of his
base—the voters who would be likely to vote for Republican candidates in November.
That base is often a “black box” to many Americans and Europeans alike, and
this impedes accurate analysis of Trump’s political calculus in making a deal
with Putin that would be sure to anger government officials both in Ukraine and
the E.U.
2. Ibid.
